Post Opening Series

So, its obviously way way way too early to dig into the actual data. Four games into the season, however, I want to delve into some numbers and start thinking.

First, lets look at some overall Padres:

The Padres scored 16 runs which placed them at 17th in the majors over the first series. Offense wasn't completely terrible, I suppose. Their walk percentage was 14.2 percent which was good for second in the majors behind only the Yankees. The Padres difficulty, as I'm sure it will be for the entire season, was hitting for power. San Diego notched a .094 Isolated Power which is pretty bad. Teams worse so far? The Pirates, the Twins and the Phillies. Not good company.

Good news for the offense is that batting average on balls in play was only .233. Hopefully, that can rebound and drive the team's average and slugging up a bit. The teams offensive WAR was .6 which was good for 14th in the majors--right in the middle of the pack.

So the offense looks good. Not much power but getting on base at a solid clip which is a good indication of a good approach on offense.

Now, to the pitching.

There's a reason the Padres are 1-3 and run prevention is the culprit. The Padres gave up 21 runs (17 earned) which was good for the 27th best in the majors. Even worse is that the pitchers BABIP was around .243 meaning the staff was probably lucky to be the 27th best pitching staff in the league especially considering that its not like the staff earned a bunch of infield fly balls (5.4%). About the only good news is that the LOB% was the worst in the league at 61.90% which implies that the team got a little unlucky at holding baserunners from scoring. And, if we're going to be honest the team threw enough strikes and limited the walks (EXCEPT FOR YOU EDINSON VOLQUEZ) to be a decent enough staff. xFIP so far was a 3.81 (20th in the majors).

Alright. So I'm overreacting a little bit. Its not hard to look at the Padres and dream a little bit. You can see a league average offense and league average run prevention contending and maybe making a run in a weak division. On the other hand, its hard to envision the staff being league average, realistically.

So far my favorite stat? Chase Headley .077/.333/.308. The man is tied for 3rd on the Padres in on base percentage despite hitting .077 in the series. Sexy beast.

Nick Hundley signed his new deal and promptly went hitless in the first series. So there's that.

Olrlando Hudson and Yonder Alonso I think are due for some luck. Yonder Alonso--check this out--has a 40% line drive rate but a BABIP of .200. That will change quite quickly. And I can't wait to watch a 3-5 day with two doubles.

Cory Luebke, man, hard luck. Sported a BABIP of .563 in his loss with a 40% left on base percentage. Especially considering he struck out 6 and only walked 1 in 4.2 innings of work. Can't wait to watch him regress! He's got a 9.64 ERA but an xFIP of 3.38 which means he owes me about 8 innings of lights out pitching. I like forward to it, Mr. Luebke.

Defense has to get better and I'm sure it will. San Diego isn't a slouch defensive team with Maybin, Hudson, Bartlett and all grading as above average fielders through the middle (yes, Hudson and Bartlett didn't fair well last year but their career fielding is above average. Yes, I know that skill peaks early and they might be terrible. We'll see.) Team might be league average but catcher, first base and right field might be above average and Headly might be average. Not the Detroit Tigers infield in the least.

So, after that exhaustive report what can we say?

Dude, its been fucking 4 games. Nothing.